Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Analyze
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• Europe
• Asia
• South_America
• Africa

Table of Contents

• Analysis of the most affected countries in North America
• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • Mexico
  • US
  • Panama
  • Costa Rica
  • Canada
  • Honduras
  • Belize
  • Guatemala
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • El Salvador
  • Cuba

Analysis of the most affected countries in North America⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Mexico⮸

Population $128,932,753$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,019,543$ on 2020-11-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,047,618.3}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 154.4)}}\) (asimptote \(1,047,618.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $100,104$ on 2020-11-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{98,236.3}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 132.3)}}\) (asimptote \(98,236.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $153,078$ on 2020-11-19

US⮸

Population $331,002,651$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $11,715,316$ on 2020-11-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{13,564,573.4}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 193.8)}}\) (asimptote \(13,564,573.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $252,535$ on 2020-11-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{242,140.2}{1 + 10^{-0.009 (t - 107.7)}}\) (asimptote \(242,140.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $7,052,072$ on 2020-11-19

Panama⮸

Population $4,314,767$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $151,089$ on 2020-11-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{147,051.0}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 154.9)}}\) (asimptote \(147,051.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,922$ on 2020-11-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,869.4}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 147.1)}}\) (asimptote \(2,869.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $16,852$ on 2020-11-19

Costa Rica⮸

Population $5,094,118$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $128,231$ on 2020-11-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{143,072.3}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 202.4)}}\) (asimptote \(143,072.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,599$ on 2020-11-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,791.7}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 195.9)}}\) (asimptote \(1,791.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $47,781$ on 2020-11-19

Canada⮸

Population $37,742,154$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $319,175$ on 2020-11-19

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $11,314$ on 2020-11-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,450.4}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 57.4)}}\) (asimptote \(9,450.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $50,551$ on 2020-11-19

Honduras⮸

Population $9,904,607$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $103,488$ on 2020-11-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{107,036.4}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 156.6)}}\) (asimptote \(107,036.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,839$ on 2020-11-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,845.2}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 138.5)}}\) (asimptote \(2,845.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $55,567$ on 2020-11-19

Belize⮸

Population $397,628$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,018$ on 2020-11-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,329.6}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 222.3)}}\) (asimptote \(7,329.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $102$ on 2020-11-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,865.6}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 333.1)}}\) (asimptote \(1,865.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,173$ on 2020-11-19

Guatemala⮸

Population $17,915,568$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $117,066$ on 2020-11-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{112,541.1}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 143.7)}}\) (asimptote \(112,541.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,050$ on 2020-11-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,739.2}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 121.6)}}\) (asimptote \(3,739.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $6,711$ on 2020-11-19

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

El Salvador recovered 81%
Cuba recovered 54%
Panama recovered 34%
Mexico recovered 4%

El Salvador⮸

Population $6,486,205$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $37,109$ on 2020-11-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{34,028.5}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 132.1)}}\) (asimptote \(34,028.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,061$ on 2020-11-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{994.0}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 130.1)}}\) (asimptote \(994.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,291$ on 2020-11-19

Cuba⮸

Population $11,326,616$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $7,725$ on 2020-11-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{21,299.5}{1 + 10^{-0.005 (t - 291.0)}}\) (asimptote \(21,299.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $131$ on 2020-11-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{128.9}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 62.9)}}\) (asimptote \(128.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $393$ on 2020-11-19