Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,019,543$ on 2020-11-19
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,047,618.3}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 154.4)}}\) (asimptote \(1,047,618.3\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $100,104$ on 2020-11-19
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{98,236.3}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 132.3)}}\) (asimptote \(98,236.3\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $153,078$ on 2020-11-19
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $11,715,316$ on 2020-11-19
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{13,564,573.4}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 193.8)}}\) (asimptote \(13,564,573.4\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $252,535$ on 2020-11-19
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{242,140.2}{1 + 10^{-0.009 (t - 107.7)}}\) (asimptote \(242,140.2\))
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $7,052,072$ on 2020-11-19
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $151,089$ on 2020-11-19
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{147,051.0}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 154.9)}}\) (asimptote \(147,051.0\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,922$ on 2020-11-19
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,869.4}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 147.1)}}\) (asimptote \(2,869.4\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $16,852$ on 2020-11-19
Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $128,231$ on 2020-11-19
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{143,072.3}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 202.4)}}\) (asimptote \(143,072.3\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,599$ on 2020-11-19
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,791.7}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 195.9)}}\) (asimptote \(1,791.7\))
Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $47,781$ on 2020-11-19
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $319,175$ on 2020-11-19
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $11,314$ on 2020-11-19
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,450.4}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 57.4)}}\) (asimptote \(9,450.4\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $50,551$ on 2020-11-19
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $103,488$ on 2020-11-19
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{107,036.4}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 156.6)}}\) (asimptote \(107,036.4\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,839$ on 2020-11-19
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,845.2}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 138.5)}}\) (asimptote \(2,845.2\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $55,567$ on 2020-11-19
Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $5,018$ on 2020-11-19
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,329.6}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 222.3)}}\) (asimptote \(7,329.6\))
Start date 2020-04-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $102$ on 2020-11-19
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,865.6}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 333.1)}}\) (asimptote \(1,865.6\))
Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $2,173$ on 2020-11-19
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $117,066$ on 2020-11-19
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{112,541.1}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 143.7)}}\) (asimptote \(112,541.1\))
Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $4,050$ on 2020-11-19
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,739.2}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 121.6)}}\) (asimptote \(3,739.2\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $6,711$ on 2020-11-19